W50: Orange Weekly Report — Tridge

Tridge’s global market analysts and country representatives analyze what happened in W50 in the global orange market. In summary, in Brazil, orange harvest forecast remained stable for 2022/23 season. In Chinese market, the sales of American oranges were not good. Moving on, due to the closure of the customs office, late-December 2022 deliveries of California navel oranges will be delayed until W1 2023. In Germany, orange prices are expected to fall by 17% in W51. As for Ghana, the distributor price of egyptian oranges has doubled and, Ghanian Dealers prefer to source oranges from smallholder farmers. During W49 in Indonesia, the demand for Pakistan Kinnow oranges has increased due to the incoming holiday at the end of January 2023 and many of Indonesian importers are finding other alternative for orangers due to china’s strict situation in logistics. In Vietnam, the overall trading volume of oranges has decreased by 29.58% YoY due to the impact of COVID-19.


Fundecitrus Maintains Orange Harvest Forecast for the Main Citrus Growing Area in Brazil (Dec 12)

This December 12, 2022, the 2022/23 orange crop in the citrus area of São Paulo and Minas Gerais was estimated at 314.11M boxes of 40.8kg, practically stable compared to the September 2022 forecast (314.09M). Compared to the previous season, when the harvest was impeded by severe drought and frost, production in the major orange-producing region for the Brazilian industry, the top worldwide fruit juice producer, would increase by almost 19%.

Second Brazilian Forecast: Orange Estimate for This Season Remains Stable (Dec 16)

The second update of the 2022/23 orange harvest forecast for the São Paulo citrus belt and the west-southwest of Minas Gerais, published on December 12, 2022, by Fundecitrus and its collaborators, is 314.11M boxes of 40.8kg each. This update indicates that the harvest remains as expected to the forecast projected in September 2023, with an increase of just 20K boxes, which corresponds to 0.01%.

High Temperatures Benefit the Flow of Oranges (Dec 16)

Orange sales were more heated in W50, reflecting the increase in average temperatures. Despite this, fruit prices continued to show little change. In W50, the pear variety had an average of USD 8.11/box (BRL 41.92/box) of 40.8kg, a slight drop of 1.55% compared to W49. Christmas had an average of USD 7.05/box (BRL 36.43/box), a slight increase of 1.31% in the same period.


In Guangzhou Market, the Quality of American Oranges for Sale Was Not Good on December 14, 2022 (Dec 14)

On December 14, 2022, the first container of American oranges for the 2022/23 season was opened for sale at the Guangzhou wholesale market. The opening prices for oranges in size 56 stood at USD 54.7/20kg box, and size 72 & 88 stood at USD 57.5/20kg box. The arrival quality and firmness of the orange’s hardness are not good.

China’s Overall Trading Volume of Oranges Decreased by 29.58% YoY Due to the Impact of COVID-19 (Dec 18)

From October 1, 2022, to December 15, 2022, the overall trading volume of oranges decreased by 29.58% YoY, and the average price was USD 1.37/kg, up 13.31% YoY. The overall trading situation of oranges increased due to the repeated impact of the domestic epidemic as customers purchased more oranges to have a vitamin supplement, but the trading volume decreased significantly. As the epidemic gradually eased, the peak sales will come, and the following transactions will improve in China.

United States

California Navel Oranges That Arrive Late in December Will Be On Hold Until W1 2023 Due to Customs Office Closure (Dec 12)

With the start of the California navel season in late November 2022, citrus importers in Japan placed orders for as many FCLs as available. However, most of the containers importers can secure are expected only to arrive the final week of December 2022, when Japanese customs offices will be closed during the year-end holidays. As a result, those containers have to be on hold until the middle of the W1 of 2023 when the customs office re-opens. W2 will likely be the period, for the majority of the fruits to be traded actively.


EU Harvest Estimate for Apples, Oranges, Tomatoes, Peaches and Nectarines Lowered (Dec 12)

The short-term statistical forecasts and estimates for the harvest and consumption of oranges in the European Union are lower than in the previous season. The harvest of oranges will drop overall by -12.1%, the consumption oforanges by -9.5%, and consumption by -5.6%. Between 2022/23 and 2021/22, imports are expected to increase by 20.3%, and exports of fresh oranges to decrease by -12.5%.


Orange Prices in German Wholesale Markets Are Expected to Fall by 17% In W51 (Dec 16)

In the German wholesale market, Oranges from Italy, South Africa, and Portugal are available. In W50, orange prices were stable overall but slightly increased in the week, probably due to the cold weather in Europe. However, since Spanish, Turkish and Greek produce is expected to hit the German markets within W51, wholesalers expect the prices to fall by 17% from around USD 24.46/7kg FOT in W49 to USD 20.21/7 kg in W51.


In W49, South African Oranges Are Double the Price of Egyptian Oranges in Ghana (Dec 12)

In Ghana, the distributor price of South African orange as of December 12 is quoted at USD 2.69/kg, which is almost twice the price of Egyptian orange at USD 1.38/kg. Despite the price difference, some major citrus retailers in Ghana prefer the South African orange over the Egyptian orange due to its longer shelf life. Furthermore, Egyptian orange dealers are accused by Ghanaian retailers of initially supplying high-quality products and then mixing them with low-quality citrus, affecting their ability to market the product.

Ghanaian Dealers of Egyptian Oranges Prefer Sourcing Products From Smallholder Farmers to Established Producers Due to Market Price Differences (Dec 16)

Some Egyptian orange dealers in Ghana have stated their preference for citrus products from smallholder farmers in Egypt as compared to established farmers due to differences in market prices for the same product. They indicated that prices for products from well-established Egyptian orange farmers are controlled and expensive most of the time compared to what they can secure from the smallholder farmers who also offer the same quality product.


Increase Demand for Pakistan Kinnow Oranges During W49 Due to the Upcoming Chinese New Years Holiday (Dec 13)

With the upcoming Chinese New Year at the end of January 2023, the demand for Kinnow oranges from Pakistan has increased significantly in Indonesia. During W49, the market CIF price for Kinnow oranges was between USD 2.1–2.76/kg. Many fruit importers started their orders at the end of November 2022 to fulfill their market demand in mid-January 2023. The average purchase is around 2 to 3 containers (+/- volume of 45 MT) per importer to fulfill the demand for the CNY high season.

Due to Tight Logistic Situation and Protests in China During W49, Many Indonesian Importers Found an Alternative Origin for Oranges (Dec 13)

During W49, many Indonesian importers have been seeking alternatives to Chinese oranges due to the tight logistic situation in China, caused by uncertainties due to the Covid situation and protests in Beijing. These factors have caused a higher risk of shipment delays. Meanwhile, most of the importer’s quota will be expired at the end of December 2022. As a safer alternative, importers have placed an order for oranges from Egypt with a December arrival. Egypt orange has a very competitive FOB price, even though importers will need to pay slightly higher fees for duty. One of the challenges for Egypt’s orange is the taste that sometimes is too sour for Indonesian people.

Originally published at https://www.tridge.com on December 23, 2022.



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