W48: Weekly Orange Update — Tridge

Tridge’s global market analysts and country representatives take a deep dive into what happened during W48 in the global orange landscape. In summary, Northern Hemisphere orange production is expected to be down 12% to a total of 14MMT. Citrus greening has spread through the Brazilian citrus belt, threatening global orange supplies. The Spanish Navelina oranges are mostly of small-to-medium sizes in the 2022/23 campaign. Furthermore, the demand for Spanish Navelina oranges is declining in W48, especially with no more demand from the Middle East market because the Egyptian campaign is starting. The market for juice oranges in the Netherlands for W47 remained unchanged compared to W46, as it is still dominated by South African oranges with low prices for all varieties and sizes. Lastly, there was an oversupply of Japanese Mikan oranges in the Japanese market in W48.


Citriculture in the Northern Hemisphere May Be One of the Smallest Harvest

Citrus production in the northern hemisphere is expected to drop 13% this season, to 26 million MT, as estimated by the World Citrus Organization (WCO). The WCO forecast is based on data from Egypt, Greece, Israel, Italy, Morocco, Spain, Tunisia, Turkey and the United States. This year’s harvest is one of the smallest in recent seasons, mainly because of climate issues in the main exporting countries. Despite the fall in production in the Northern Hemisphere, the citrus market remains heated, as citrus fruits are still one of the leading fruits in the global market. The organisation’s report said that orange production is expected to drop by nearly 12% to a total of 14 million MT. In the European Union, the forecast is that citrus production will suffer a drop of 15%, while in Spain and Italy, the forecast is 21% respectively. In the United States, the citrus crop, according to USDA estimates, should drop 5% compared to the previous crop.

Tridge Analysis: Citrus Greening Spreads Through Brazil’s Citrus Belt, Threatening Global Orange Supplies

Huanglongbing (HLB), commonly known as citrus greening, is Brazil’s most destructive disease and is now the biggest threat to the global citrus industry. Over the past two years, the disease has swept across São Paulo, the country’s citrus belt, with a growth of 9.16%. Most regions in the country have a climate that augurs well for HLB infection and spread. In addition, the high density of orchards in most parts of Brazil makes it challenging to coordinate joint actions for regional disease management. The effect of the disease on crops is apparent in the US, Brazil’s largest fresh orange and orange juice market. HLB has devastated the citrus crop in Florida since it first appeared in 1998. Global shortages could soon materialise as demand for citrus products continues to rise while major producers face supply shortages. (Continue Reading)


Oranges Harvested in the 2022/23 Spanish Navelina Orange Campaign Are Mostly Small-To-Medium Sized

The Spanish Navelina variety orange harvest continues to progress at a good pace due to current high demand, especially from the European, Canadian, and Brazilian markets. The sizes available are generally medium to small, making it very difficult to supply those markets where larger sizes are preferred. Furthermore, harvested oranges must undergo a degreening process before being marketed, and this is expected to continue at least until Christmas. In W47, orange prices were stable at around USD 0.83–0.88/kg EXW Spain.

Demand for Spanish Navelina Oranges Declined in W47 as Egypt’s Navelina Campaign Is About to Start

The demand for Spanish Navelina oranges is declining in W48, especially with no more demand from the Middle East market because the Egyptian campaign is starting. In addition, the market is also less active since Spanish oranges are mostly available in small-to-medium calibres, which are less preferred by consumers. The producers have already bottomed out with the price and are selling at USD 0.83/kg EXW Spain in W47, which is essentially the break-even point. Therefore, the price in W48 is consistent despite the current drop in demand. The prospects for the upcoming weeks are not promising given Egypt’s plans to send medium and small-sized oranges to most markets in large quantities.


Prices of Vegetables and Fruits in the Obour Market

The prices of a number of varieties of vegetables and fruits stabilised December 4, trading day in the wholesale market in El-Obour. According to the data of the official website of the market, the Navel orange prices ranged between USD 0.16 and USD 0.28 (4 and 7 pounds).

United States

Brief Outlook of Early Crop of California Navel Oranges for W49

US navel oranges became available for export from the central California area in W48. Early crops of Washington variety consist heavily of smaller size, despite less fruit set on the tree than last year. For W49, the predicted size ratio for Navel oranges per container will be divided into 40% of 113s, 35% of 88s, and the remaining 25% filled by the combination of 72s and 56s.


Citrus Market Prices for Different Origins in the Dutch Market in W47

The market for juice oranges in the Netherlands for W47 remained unchanged compared to W46, as it is still dominated by South African oranges with low prices for all varieties and sizes. In W47, the price of juice, Valencia, and Delta oranges of South African origin is between USD 10.35–12.42/15kg box for Cat 1 (sizes 64/72/88/100) and USD 9.32–10.35/15kg box for Cat 2 (sizes 72/88/100/105). There are already more Navelinas from Spain available, packed in 15kg wooden boxes, but prices have dropped compared to W46 to USD 12.42/15kg box for size 56 and USD 9.32/15kg box for size 110.


Fruit and Vegetable Price Trend

No significant changes in the prices of Navelina. Good quality products from Calabria and Basilicata were added to the Sicilian production which kept demand alive and, consequently, stable prices. It was noted that the first quotas of Tarocco orange variety were from Sicily.


Orange Fruit, a Clear Decline in Tunisia Harvest Expected

According to the National Agriculture Observatory (Onagri), the production of oranges will decrease by 30.6%, while that of clementines by 15%. Meanwhile, the volume of mandarins is expected to decrease by 18%, while that of lemons by about 23%. In Tunisia, citrus cultivation occupies more than 28,000 hectares, equal to about 6.5% of the country’s tree area, excluding olive groves. The harvest is mainly done in the governorate of Nabeul, which concentrates almost 68% of the plantations.


Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Prices in the Polish Wholesale Market in W47

In W47 in Poland, bananas and citrus experienced an increase in sales volume, while sales of grapes of European origin dropped due to falling temperatures and quality issues towards the end of the growing season. Italian mandarins finally arrived in large quantities and are selling well, with an expected increase in price in W48 due to rain in production areas of Italy. As of November 27, prices of Spanish oranges were USD 3.93/kg.


Orange Prices Remained Virtually Stable

Orange prices remained virtually stable in (11/21 to 25/11). However, agents consulted by Hortifruti/Cepea believe demand is rising, based on high temperatures. The most popular varieties are pear and lime, but the latter is already in short supply. The pear orange had an average of USD 8.21/box of 40.8kg (R$ 42.92), on the tree, a slight increase of 0.98% compared to the previous one.

With Slow Sales, Prices Remain Stable

Orange prices are seeing little movement in W48. Cepea collaborators indicate that, despite the beginning of the month, the World Cup games and competition with seasonal fruits (stone fruits, mainly) are restricting sales. In the part of the week (Monday to Thursday), the pear orange has an average of USD 8.71/box of 40.8kg (R$ 42.68), in the tree, a slight drop of 0.57% compared to last week.


Introducing Ha Giang Yellow Orange Specialties at a Safe Agricultural Store in Ninh Binh

On December 1, the Farmers’ Association of Ninh Binh province, the Center for Vocational Training and Support for Farmers of the province coordinated with the Farmers’ Association of Ha Giang province to organise introduction points and support the consumption of Ha Giang yellow orange products. At the same time, Khanh Thanh safe agricultural product store opened (street 1A, Yen Ninh town, Yen Khanh district). At this time, Ha Giang yellow oranges are in full bloom while the export market is facing difficulties, so the consumption of yellow oranges by farmers in Ha Giang province faces many obstacles. The amount of oranges in stock in large growers, photos affect the lives of people growing oranges. It is known that about 2.5MT of Ha Giang yellow oranges have been transported for consumption in Ninh Binh province, with prices ranging from USD 0.77/kg (18,000 VND) or more. The program will be implemented until the end of December 2022.


Oversupply of Japanese Mikan Oranges in the Japanese Market in W48

In W48, Japan faced an oversupply of Japanese Mikan oranges that were left unsold. In previous years, orders from China for Japanese oranges were still high in W48, causing low supply. On the other hand, in 2022, demand dropped earlier as the Lunar New Year will start earlier in January 2023, leaving an oversupply of oranges in the Japanese market.

Originally published at https://www.tridge.com on December 9, 2022.



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